ConsenSys-Incubated Gnosis Announces Ethereum Prediction Market

Gnosis, the first project founded within the Consensus Systems (ConsenSys) Ethereum development studio, has announced its decentralized platform for prediction markets.

Built on Ethereum, Gnosis provides an open platform for anyone to predict the outcome of any event. It also enables the creation and customization of any prediction market using crowdsourced wisdom from individuals across the globe.

Prediction markets are created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of an event is.

Despite being rigorously tested, cutting-edge instruments for forecasting the future, traditional prediction markets applications that operate on centralized platforms tend towards proprietary designs, siloing data and reducing overall liquidity. Furthermore, these databases lack the resilience necessary to resist censorship and reach untapped liquidity pools across the globe.

Startups like Gnosis and Augur intend to change that by applying peer-to-peer computing technologies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“Gnosis is part of a new wave of decentralized platforms, key to which is permissionless innovation,” said Martin Köppelmann, co-founder of Gnosis. “Having an open platform with verifiable behavior introduces an incredible opportunity to bring a wide range of applications onto Gnosis, many of which we never anticipated.”

Gnosis allows anyone to create a market on the outcome of a specific event and lets people around the world predict the likelihood of the outcome. When the event occurs, the market rewards participants who accurately predicted the event.

Unlike traditional polling, Gnosis collects information by financially incentivizing good information and disincentivizing bad information. The platform aggregates all information sources and creates data layers for probabilities, giving each future outcome a quantified probability of occurring. This data feed can be used for any third-party application and can power Artificial Intelligence.

Gnosis is powered by its own cryptocurrency token, which will be used to reward people for accurate predictions on the platform. People can then trade or sell their tokens, or use them to make more predictions.

Gnosis seeks to be the world’s most efficient forecasting tool and become a standard for predictive assets. By mid-2018, the company plans to enable third parties to develop prediction market applications on top of Gnosis. A Gnosis mobile client and a Gnosis DApp Store are expected to be released in 2018 as well.

The project was triggered in January 2015. The team released an alpha version in August the same year.

Gnosis Ltd. was officially incorporated in March 2017 in Gibraltar. It counts amongst its advisors Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin, as well as Robert Hanson, the inventor of prediction markets, and Jason Trost, founder of Smarkets sports betting.

Gnosis has recently released a Twitter Bot that tweets every three hours on the outcome prices of selected markets. Anyone can reply to a tweet with their predictions using the following message:

“Lower 1 ETH”: Bet 1 ETH on NO Outcome.

“Higher 1 ETH”: Bet 1 ETH on YES Outcome.

The Twitter Bot replies showing how the outcome probability will change with a QR code users can scan with Uport to perform the transaction.