Top crypto analyst predicts LUNA could shed up to 50%

• Cred says LUNA’s market structure is showing a post fakeout reclaim
• He predicts that the price of the native token for Terra could slide as low as $40

A largely-followed crypto analyst has predicted that a downfall could be coming for LUNA, with a forecast that the price of the Terra-native asset could fall more than 50%.

Cred, a top crypto analyst, said in a recent YouTube session that the current LUNA structure is a cause of concern and should it emulate previous patterns (a post-fakeout reclaim shown by Solana), then the recent optimistic prices shaped up into a massive a bull trap. 

“I’m just drawing a structure from the highest close, the December high, and then [the] weekly [candle] closed way above it. Made a new all-time high and the next weekly just bearish engulfed it… That’s a range-high failed breakout. Your normal target for that is the range low… Your bias shifts only if the range high is reclaimed or if price reaches the range low.”

Referencing the period after Solana’s SOL broke out to a new all-time high in March 2021, Cred illustrated that it immediately plunged, then consolidated for a while until it again clocked the failed breakout point. From around that time, it hit a prolonged rally to an all-time high.

The strategist observed that LUNA is showing a clear level and a certain failed breakout – to mean the failure to break beyond the all-time high set on April 5. He explained that this failed breakout could be a long-term bullish indicator (as in Solana’s case), despite the current unfriendly market conditions.

Further, Cred predicted that the declining LUNA would gain support at around $60 but may still plunge to $40. He noted that the lower price would only be just a ‘bottom of the range’ price and not really the most bearish situation.

Avalanche could turn bullish despite failed reclaim 

Speaking AVAX, Cred noted that the token hit another failed reclaim at around $86. However, that could change if the market recovers above $86 again. This would make the probability for another fakeout quite low, and thinkably, AVAX would potentially gain towards $115 afterward.

“I think the same logic applies where if you get an $86 reclaim, the likelihood that you get another fakeout is pretty low and maybe you get that final push towards $115 or at least through the high $100 or thereabouts.”